Russian FM obtains promises in Damascus but their effects remain to be seen

Bashar Assad welcomes Russia's top spy Mikhail Fradkov (m) and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Russia won a promise from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Tuesday to bring an end to bloodshed in Syria. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who visited Syria accompanied by Russia's top spy, said Russia now wanted to resolve Syria's crisis in line with an Arab plan Moscow and Beijing vetoed in the U.N. Security Council.

"The president of Syria assured us he was 'completely committed to the task of stopping violence regardless of where it may come from'," Interfax quoted Lavrov as saying after his meeting with Assad. Russia has supported an Arab League peace proposal for Syria floated last November envisaging a withdrawal of troops from cities and towns, release of prisoners, and reforms. It was not clear from Lavrov's remarks whether Russia was now also backing the League's call on Assad to step down.

Lavrov said Assad assured him he was committed to halting bloodshed by both sides and that he was ready to seek dialogue with all political groups in the country. However, the question remains what Assad's promise is worth. Assad made similar promises in the past, which have been brushed off by opposition forces as missing any substance. Opposition activists also said that government forces renewed shelling of the central city of Homs on Tuesdapry just before Lavrov's arrival, killing some 19 people in this city, where according to them over 300 have been killed in the last five days. There were also reports from residents of shelling and fighting on Tuesday between government and rebel forces in Hama, another urban stronghold of anti-Assad sentiment.

The United States shut its embassy and said all staff had left Syria due to worsening security in the country, which has also been hit by suicide bombings in Damascus. Also the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) said its members were recalling their ambassadors from Damascus and expelling Syrian envoys from their own capitals.European Union states followed up their denunciation of the veto by preparing a new round of sanctions on Syria, EU diplomats said on Tuesday, with the focus on central bank assets and trade in precious metals, gold and diamonds. Also France, Italy, Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain recalled their ambassadors from Syria. Japan was considering reducing the number of its diplomatic staff in Damascus.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, an ex-ally who has turned against Assad, described the U.N. vetoes as "a fiasco for the civilised world" and said Ankara was preparing a new initiative with those who oppose the Syrian government.

U.S. President Barack Obama said that, however hard Western countries are prepared to lean on Assad diplomatically, they still had no intention of using force to topple him, as they did against Muammar Gaddafi in Libya last year."I think it is very important for us to try to resolve this without recourse to outside military intervention. And I think that's possible," he told NBC's Today show.

Deplorable Russian veto?

 The reaction of the US (Hillary Clinton, Susan Rice, Obama) to the Russian/Chinese veto in the Security Council of the resolution against Syria was that it was disgusting, shameful, deplorable and a travesty.
Oh was it?
In order to balance the anger a bit, the site Jadaliyya published a complete list of US vetoes over the years. It it includes among other thing, vetoes against the following resolutions:  

1972 Condemns Israel for killing hundreds of people in Syria and Lebanon in air raids.
1973 Affirms the rights of the Palestinians and calls on Israel to withdraw from the occupied territories.
1976 Condemns Israel for attacking Lebanese civilians.
1976 Condemns Israel for building settlements in the occupied territories.
1976 Calls for self determination for the Palestinians.
1976 Affirms the rights of the Palestinians.
1978 Urges the permanent members (USA, USSR, UK, France, China) to insure UN decisions on the maintenance of international peace and security.
1978 Criticises the living conditions of the Palestinians.
1978 Condemns the Israeli human rights record in occupied territories.

The whole list is to be found here. Don't be surprised to find that it is much longer. Most concern Israel and the Palestinians, but there are also a few against Apartheid South Africa.

New heavy Syrian bombardments of Homs

House on fire during bombardment of Homs, 6 February 2012.

Syrian forces bombarded Homs on Monday, killing 50 people in a sustained assault on several districts of the city, the Syrian National Council opposition group said."The tally that we have received from various activists in Homs since the shelling started at six this morning is 50, mostly civilians," the group's Catherine al-Talli told Reuters.
"The regime is acting as if it were immune to international intervention and has a free hand to use violence against the people," she said.
The bombardment came a day after the United States promised harsher sanctions against Damascus in response to Russian and Chinese vetoes of a draft U.N. resolution that would have backed an Arab plan urging Assad to step aside. "This is the most violent bombardment in recent days," said one activist in Syria who was in touch with Homs residents. Another activist said forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad were using multiple rocket launchers in the attack. Damascus denies firing on houses and says images of dead bodies on the Internet were staged.
 
 Baba Amro being targeted.

The latest assault, which began shortly after 2 a.m. (7 p.m. ET) on Monday, appeared to be more widely targeted, with explosions in Khalidiya, Baba Amro, Bayada and Bab Dreib neighborhoods, the activists said. "They want to drive the Free Syrian Army out," said Bab Amro resident Hussein Nader by telephone, referring to the rebel force of army deserters and gunmen who have controlled parts of the city for months.
As well as those killed, 150 people had been wounded, he said. "Rockets are falling seconds apart on the same target."
Activists also said Zabadani, a town north-west of Damascus near the Lebanese border which has been largely under the control of Assad's opponents for several weeks, had come under fire on Monday.

Israeli cabinet approves construction of fast rail link between Mediterranean and Red Sea

 Oil import terminal, Eilat.

Israel's government on Sunday gave the green light to building the first rail link between its Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts, offering a new Asia-Europe trade route to compete with the Suez Canal.
"This is a strategic decision," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ministers at the cabinet's weekly meeting.
"In the coming decade, new (economic) powers will arise," a statement from his office quoted him as saying. "It is within our power to create an alternative transport route, bypassing the Suez Canal."
At an initial cabinet meeting on the project last week, Netanyahu said the plan had "created very great interest among the emerging powers, China and India, and others."
Te project also envisages a passenger line through the Negev desert which would for the first time would put Israel's southern Red Sea resort of Eilat a two-hour train ride from Tel Aviv, 350 kilometres away. The electrified rail line will reach top speeds of 300 km per hour, allowing it to complete the trip in two and a half hours. The route will include 63 bridges and five tunnels.Statutory planning of the line has already begun, and is expected to be completed by the end of 2012. Construction is expected to take another four years. 
Netanyahu's office said the first stage would be to choose between three alternative financing schemes -- a bilateral agreement "between Israel and another government," a partnership between the Israeli government and local investors, or full government funding.
The transport ministry says its preferred option is a joint project with China. On its website it said that minister Yisrael Katz met China's transport minister in Beijing last September and the two agreed to prepare a joint proposal for the Eilat link.
Israeli officials say a so-called "Med-Red" railway could also be used for future exports of gas to India, and possibly China, from Mediterranean fields currently under development. The two biggest Israeli finds, Tamar and Leviathan, lay respectively about 80 and 130 kilometres (50 and 80 miles) off the northern port city of Haifa.Tamar is believed to hold at least 8.4 trillion cubic feet of gas (238 billion cubic metres), while Leviathan is believed to have reserves of 16 trillion cubic feet (450 billion cubic metres).In June, an Israeli company announced the discovery of two new natural gas fields, Sarah and Mira, around 70 kilometres (45 miles) off the city of Hadera further south along the Mediterranean coast.

Russia and China again veto resolution on Syria in Security Council

Russia and China have vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning the Syrian government's deadly crackdown on protests.  The resolution was introduced by Morocco and called for the regime to put an immediate stop to violence against protesters and for-Assad to hand over power to his deputy. The text also called for the formation of a unity government leading to "transparent and free elections," while stressing there will be no foreign military intervention in Syria.

Sergei Lavrov

Thirteen countries on Saturday voted for the resolution. However, Russia and China, repeated their double veto of 5 October.
The move was condemned by Human Rights Watch (HRW). In a statement from Ne York, the rights group said: "Vetoes by Russia and China are not only a slap in the face of the Arab League, they are also a betrayal of the Syrian people.The death toll has more than doubled in the last four months, and the risk is high that the Assad regime will see this double veto as a green light for even more violence."
Susan Rice, the US envoy to the UN, called the double veto "unforgivable". "Since these two members last vetoed the resolution an estimated 3,000 Syrians have been killed, with nearly 250 killed just yesterday,'' she said. Ahead of the vote, President Barack Obama accused the Syrian government of murdering civilians in an "unspeakable assault" in Homs, and demanded that Assad step down. "Assad must halt his campaign of killing and crimes against his own people. He must step aside and allow a democratic transition to proceed immediately."
Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, had said earlier on Saturday that if a resolution is put to a vote without taking Moscow's opinion into account, it will only lead to "another scandal" at the Security Council. Lavrov said Moscow had objections to what he termed "the imposition of the terms and conditions of the dialogue, which must be started without prejudging the results". He also said that "measures must be taken to influence not only the government ... but also the armed groups, because unless you do it both ways, you are taking sides in a civil war".
Sergei Lavrov will visit Damascus on Tuesday for talks with President Bashar al-Assad, together with the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (Mikhail) Fradkov. The aim is to 'obtain a political solution to the conflict," Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov twittered.

Tunisia on Saturday announced it was expelling the Syrian ambassador and revoking recognition of Assad's government. The head of a committee of parliamentarians from Arab states said Arab countries should expel Syrian ambassadors and cut ties.

 Lavrov defended his attitude by  saying that armed groups were manipulating peacuful protesters and that one was taking sides if nothing was said or done about that. Russia. On Tuesday in Australia, he also said, that Russia did not want to interfere in Syria. It was ''not Russian policy to ask people to step down, regime change is not our profession,'' he told the national broadcaster ABC. ''It is up to the Syrians themselves to decide how to run the country, how to introduce the reforms, what kind reforms, without any outside interference. We're not a friend, we're not an ally of president Assad. We never said that president Assad remaining in power is the solution to the crisis."
I know that it might be somewhat tricky to say,  but personally I believe that Russia (and China) had a point, in this situation where Assad has still the backing of large segments among the population (most Alawis, many Christians and many in the cities Damascus and Aleppo). Also the backbone of the army is still on his side and the opposition is far from united in this very fragmented country. However terrible the human rights situation at this moment may be, it is still not an all out civil war. But outside interference at this junction might push it over the threshold. (I'll co me back on this later).

Egypt's spymaster, 'the most powerful man you've never heard of'

 

 Egypt's spy chief, general Murad Muwafi.


Under Mubarak the boss of the General Intelligence Directorate (or mubakharat = secret service), general Omar Suleiman, used to be the most powerful man in Egypt after the president. With the fall of Mubarak Suleiman's power did not survive, but the mukhabarat did, and much of the power he used to have went over to his successor Murad Muwafi. Magdi Samaan paints a portrait in Foreign Policy of Muwafi as the 'most powerful man that you've never heard of'':  

 When, for example, the leaders of the military decided it was time to talk with human rights activists last fall, it was Muwafi who represented the SCAF at the meeting. One factor may have been his ample experience as Egypt’s chief mediator between Israel and the Palestinians. And when the SCAF dispatched emissaries to Washington last year, Muwafi figured in that delegation, too. (He even had his own private audience with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.) U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta made a point of including Muwafi among his interlocutors when he visited Egypt in the fall -- right after a session of cheesecake and bowling with SCAF supremo Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi. And perhaps most revealingly of all, it was Muwafi -- rather than Tantawi or the Egyptian foreign minister – to whom Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu turned when a mob stormed the Israeli Embassy in Cairo in September.

  And that was no coincidence since the General Intelligence Directorate (GID) itself, one of the most powerful pillars of the old regime, happens to be also one of the strongest factors behind the military of SCAF:
  

“Events since the fall of Mubarak demonstrate that SCAF’s plans to control Egyptian society were actually dominated by State Security and the GID, which served as the eyes and the memory of the regime,” wrote political analyst Amin Al-Mahdi in a column last year. Former army officer Ahmed Ezzat, who started a Facebook page that tracked allegations of corruption among Egypt’s military establishment, claims that the GID has used its budget funds to start private companies whose profits benefit high-ranking officers of the intelligence service. What’s more, says Ezzat, GID companies have no-bid access to government contracts. “The GID is a state within the state,” he writes. “There is no professional, financial, or legal oversight of its operations.”

For the article in full, click here

Syrian army stages bloodbath in Homs

 

More than 200 people were killed in shelling by Syrian forces in the city of Homs, activists said Saturday. Death tolls cited by activists and opposition groups ranged from 217 to 260, making the Homs attack the deadliest so far in Assad's crackdown on protests which erupted 11 months ago.
Residents said Syrian forces began shelling the Khalidiya neighbourhood at around 8 p.m. (6 p.m. British time) Friday using artillery and mortars. They said at least 36 houses were completely destroyed with families inside. Some activists said the violence was triggered by a wave of army defections in Homs, a stronghold of protests and armed insurgents who Assad has vowed to crush.
"The death toll is now at least 217 people killed in Homs, 138 of them killed in the Khalidiya district," Rami Abdulrahman, head of the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told Reuters, citing witnesses.

A Syrian activist said Assad forces bombarded Khalidiya, a key anti-Assad district, to scare other rebel neighbourhoods. "It does not seem that they get it. Even if they kill 10 million of us, the people will not stop until we topple him."
The opposition Syrian National Council said 260 civilians were killed, describing it as "one of the most horrific massacres since the beginning of the uprising in Syria." It added that it believed Assad's forces were preparing for similar attacks around Damascus and in the northern town of Jisr al-Shughour.
Another group, the Local Coordination Committees, gave a death toll of over 200. It is not possible to verify activist or state media reports as Syria restricts independent media access.

As news of the violence spread, a crowd of Syrians stormed the Syrian embassy in Cairo in protest, and rallies broke out outside Syrian missions in Britain, Germany and the United States.

(Islamist) opposition wins big in Kuwait

 

Checking the boxes. (AFP)

Kuwait's Islamist-led opposition has made significant gains in the Gulf state's fourth parliamentary election in six years. Opposition candidates won 34 of the 50 seats in the National Assembly, with 23 of them going to Sunni Islamists.Liberals won nine seats. Women did not win any. There were four women in the last parliament, but Ayesh al-Rasheed, a journalist and 2009 candidate, felt “women wouldn’t have won the four seats in the last election had they not had government support.”

Friday's results showed Islamist candidates, including ultra-conservative Salafists, winning 14 seats, while independent Islamists representing tribes took nine. Tribal-based candidates took 20 seats overall.Another seven seats went to candidates from the Shia minority community, which generally sides with the Sabah family.

Kuwait's Emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, called the snap election amid a crisis over corruption allegations.He said in December that "deteriorating conditions" had led to "difficulties in achieving progress and threatened the country's higher interests". In November, the cabinet resigned shortly before former Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah was to be asked about the alleged payment of bribes to pro-government MPs. Protesters had stormed the parliament building the previous month when the government tried to prevent Sheikh Nasser facing questions.

Sixty-two percent of Kuwaitis cast their vote on Thursday, this is up slightly from the 2009 election with 58 percent casting ballots. Kuwait’s rulers still retain full control over the country, but the parliament can challenge policies, initiate legislation, and bring no-confidence motions against officials. ”Meaningful constitutional reform is unlikely under the leadership of the current emir.

After the football disaster in Port Said

Grieving family members of some of the 74 people that were killed in the football stampede in Port Said at the morgue in Cairo. (AP)

 Update Saturday: According to the Egyptian ministry of health, the death toll in clashes that broke out on Thursday between thousands of protesters, angry over the Port Said massacre on Wednesday, and police forces has risen to 12 by midday Saturday.
Five protesters were killed in Cairo, and seven in Suez.


 A siege in front of the Interior ministry this Friday, fresh demonstrations in Cairo, (where two people were killed, one man by birdshot and an officer who was run over by a military vehicle) and in Suez (where two people were killed by police bullets). A debate in parliament, the resignation of the governor of Port Said -  it is clear that the shadow of Wednesday's events in the football stadium in Port Said (74 dead, 400 wounded) still hangs heavily over Egypt's political life.
Many blame the military for the way things went out off hand, as it is yet another blatant show of their incompetence in the management of the country. Others go one step further and fear that it was a deliberate attempt at destabilizing the country by the many remnants of the former regime who are still omnipresent and in powerful functions. It might even have an act of revenge on their part, many  think,  on the ''ultras'', the hard core of the supporters of the club Ahly, who played an important role during the uprising at Tahrir, particularly in protecting other protesters on 28  January 2011, the 'Battle of the Camels',  against the onslaught of thugs of the Mubarak-regime.

One thing that is beyond doubt, is the weakness of Egypt's police forces in dealing with matters like these, particularly after the revolution. Issandr Lamrani (blogger The Arabist) writes in an OpEd in The National: 

 One of the decisive points of the 2011 uprising against Hosni Mubarak was January 28, when the protesters defeated riot police and several hundred police stations across the country were attacked. This prompted the military to take to the streets, while ministry of interior forces - from traffic police to riot control squads to infamous state security officers - went into hiding. It took a few months for the police to return to the streets, but many still hold a grudge: they feel disrespected and no longer intimidate citizens. Many a police chief prefers to sulk in his office rather than risk confrontation with uncontrollable mobs - particularly when these mobs can be armed with anything from the tasers and small arms that have become popular because of the insecurity, to more heavy firearms in places like Sinai, where Bedouins have received an influx of guns from Libya's civil war.

One effect of  what happened in Port Said, however, was that the Muslim Brotherhood took its distance from the military. Only a few days ago members of the Brotherhood stopped demonstrators who demanded the speedy transition to a civilian rule from reaching parliament under the slogan ''The army and the people are one hand''. This week the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party mixed in the chorus of parties that - once again - demanded the military of SCAF to step down.

Muslim Brothers prevent protesters from reaching building of Egyptian parliament

 People march towards the parliament on the Tuesday of Determination (The Daily News Egypt)

The animosity between progressive protesters and the Muslim Brotherhood has been heated up after   Muslim Brothers on Tuesday prevented thousands of protesters from reaching the parliament in downtown Cairo. The protesters were holding marches on this so-called “Tuesday of Determination” to demand a speedy transfer of power from the military. Ar least seven marches headed to the parliament building from different spots in Cairo.
However Brotherhood supporters formed a human chain in order to stop the protesters from reaching the parliament  and chanted ´The people and the army are one hand´. The demonstrators quickly turned their slogans in anti-Muslim Brotherhood slogans like  “Where is the right of the martyr? Whoever sells the right of the martyr is a new National Democratic Party,” (the former ruling party under Mubarak). Or: “Badie sold the revolution,” which referred the Muslim Brotherhood’s supreme guide, Mohammed Badie.
The Health Ministry said in a statement that the clashes resulted in the injury of 43 people. In Suez and Ismailiyya there were also demonstrations that demanded the military hand over power soon to civilian institutions.

Arab League and Western countries pushing peace plan for Syria in Security Council

 

Syrian goverment troops seen entering a village at the outskirts of Damascus. (Reuters)
 
While Syrian government troops continue an offensive to retake areas that fell into the hands of opposition troops in the past weeks, the UN Security Council is going to debate a plan of the Arab League that calls on Assad to relinquish power to his deputy and prepare for elections. Secretary-General of the Arab League Nabil El-Araby and the prime minister of Qatar will make the case at the world body on Tuesday and try to overcome objctions from Russia and China.The Arab delegation will be supported in person by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, British Foreign Secretary William Hague and French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe as the West presents a united front.
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Meanwhile the violence in Syria continues. On Monday 96 people, including 55 civilians, were killed, mostly in the region Homs, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Tuesday. Also 25 soldiers were killed. Included in the 96 people killed were 10 dissident soldiers and six members of the security services. The organisation said in a statement received in Nicosia that 40 civilians were killed in Homs, nine in Syria's southern Dera'a region, five in outlying districts of Damascus (where Syrian govenment troops succeeded in retaking several areas from Free Syria Army-soldiers) and one in northwestern Idlib region. In addition, the bodies of a family of six killed last Thursday were found in the Karm Al-Zeitun neighbourhood of Homs, it said. On Sunday, 80 people were reportedly killed, equally divided between military and civilian deaths, in the most intense clashes of the uprising began, the Observatory reported.
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A draft of the U.N. Security Council resolution, obtained by Reuters, calls for a "political transition" in Syria, and says the Security Council could adopt unspecified "further measures" if Syria does not comply with its terms. It endorses the Arab League power transfer plan. So far Moscow has shown little sign of being persuaded to let it pass. "The current Western draft is only a step away from the October version and can by no means be supported by us," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov told Interfax. "This document is not balanced ... and above all leaves the door open for intervention in Syrian (internal) affairs."
Moscow said earlier that Damascus had agreed to its offer to host talks with opposition representatives.However, the Syrian opposition rejected this out off hand. The head of the Syrian National Council said that the opposition rejects all talks with the Damascus regime until Assad steps down. “The resignation of Assad is the condition for any negotiation on the transition to a democratic government in Syria,” Burhan Ghalioun told AFP. The second largest opposition grouping, the Syrian National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change, followed suit. “Any negotiation or meeting is inconceivable in the shadow of the growing violence and killings, and the persistent arrests,” its leader Hassan Abdel Azim told AFP.

Syrian army kills 33 in border town

The New York Times took this picture from an officer of the Free Syrian Army talking to reporters in a house in  Rankous on Saturday.

Syrian government forces have killed at least 33 people in Rankous, a mountain town of 25,000 people, 30 kms north of Damascus, activists and residents of a nearby town said Sunday. Fighting has been going on since Wednesday in Rankous, when it was besieged by several thousand troops led by the elite Fourth Division, under the command of President Bashar al-Assad's brother Maher.But the worst apparently happened after the Arab League suspended its monitoring mission on Saturday. The New York Times reported from Rankous that day that hours after the observers left on Saturday morning, tanks appeared on the outskirts of town.
A resident of the nearby town of Sednaya said the 33 were killed since Wednesday. "We have managed to get through to people there who say the bombardment has brought down at least 10 buildings," he said, adding that tens of soldiers have defected and went in to help defend the town.  "A tented army camp has been set up near the entrance of Rankous. Most of the town's residents have fled to nearby villages," he added.

It was the second major attack on Rankous since November when it was stormed by troops after a demonstration demanding Assad's removal was broadcast on the Arab news channel al-Jazeera, activists said.