Parliamentary elections in Iran: Khamenei against Ahmadinejad

 Iran's parliament, the majles,  in action.

 Iranians are going to the polls today, Friday 2 March, to elect a new parliament. Don't expect it to be a contest between conservatives and reformers. As the always knowledgeable Tehran Bureau puts it:

The leaders of the Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Dr. Zahra Rahnavard, and Mehdi Karroubi, have been under severely restrictive, extralegal house arrest for over a year. They will remain there as long as they do not change their views -- which they will not -- or there is a national and international movement for their freedom.

The Tehran Bureau as well calls out the names of many other important reformists who are in jail and it says that also

the most popular and influential opposition groups have been outlawed or forced into silence. They include the reformists -- Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), the Organization of Islamic Revolution Mojahedin (OIRM), and the National Trust Party -- groups allied with the reformists -- the Executives of Construction Party, which is close to Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani; the leftist Association of Combatant Clerics (ACC) and Association of Teachers and Scholars of Qom; and the Nationalist-Religious Coalition -- the nationalist National Front, and several other small groups. Meanwhile, hardline political groups have proliferated like wild mushrooms, with no restrictions whatsoever on their activities.

The elections are nevertheless very important, because they are a contest between the supporters of the two most important leaders of the country of this moment, ayatollah Ali Khamenei and president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Tehran Bureau calls it a 'wrestling match':  

The confrontation between the supporters of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei has become very fierce. The rift between the two men has grown too deep to be closed. The results of the vote will have a deep effect on the confrontation and what will happen in the runup to the next presidential election, to be held in June 2013. 

But the ranks around Khamenei are far for closed. Parties fragmented into several pieces and factions split off:
 These divisions may well help the Ahmadinejad faction. The hardliners around Khamenei have been expressing fear that Ahmadinejad and his supporters will manipulate the vote through the Interior Ministry, which supervises the elections, and take control of the Majles. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is also worried about the Majles elections. It wants to control the parliament not only to rein in Ahmadinejad and impeach him if necessary, but also advance its own agenda. Several months ago, the Guard representatives in the Majles spoke about possibly eliminating the presidency entirely and reviving the post of prime minister, who would be selected by the Majles and not subject to direct popular vote. Last year, one Guard spokesmen, Brigadier General Salar Abnoush, said that there would be bloodshed if the result of the Majles elections turned out to be incompatible "with our values." 

For the whole article click here.  
And for a second part which goes more into details click here

Presidential elections in Egypt: 23 and 24 May

The first round of Egypt’s first post-Mubarak presidential elections will be held on 23 and 24 May, with final results to be announced on 21 June, the Supreme Committee for Presidential Elections announced at a Wednesday press conference. The voting period for Egyptians overseas will be earlier, from 11 to 17 May. Voters abroad, however, must register to vote between 5 March and 4 April via an official government website set to be launched on 3 March.
Unless one candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round, the elections will be held in two rounds. In that case the two winners of the first round of polling will be announced within three days of the vote. A run off between these two candidates who secured the most votes in the first round, will then take place on 16 and 17 June; for Egyptians overseas from 3 to 9 June.
The period for registering presidential candidacies will begin on 8 March, with the final list of candidates to be announced on 26 April. Candidates will have from 30 April to 20 May to wage their campaigns.

Intervention from above seems to have influenced Egyptian NGO-trial

 The audience in the courtroom shouted anti-SCAF slogans after the trial was adjourned on Sunday. (Al-Ahram Online)

Many questions remain over the trial in Egypt of 43 NGO workers, 19 of them American, that attracted much attention because of its possible implications for the American -Egyptian relations.
The trial followed raids in December on the IRI, the National Democratic Institute, the International Center for Journalists and Freedom House — all from the United States — as well as on Egyptian and other groups.
 The trial’s first session was held on Sunday with the judges adjourning the case to April 26. But on Tuesday it became known that the three judges in the case withdrew of the case, and the next day the travel ban for the 19 Americans was lifted. 
The Daily News Egypt reported that uneasiness because of outside pressure may have been the reason for the judges to quit. The paper quotes the former head of Cassation Court of Alexandria, Justice Ahmed Mekky, who said that the judges received a call from the head of the Appeals Court, urging them to lift the travel ban imposed on the non-Egyptian defendants in the case. "The [judges] panel may have considered this an intervention," Mekky said, adding that a request of this kind by the Appeals Court may have put the judges in a tough spot.
The case had strained US-Egypt ties with Clinton and US lawmakers warning the military authorities in power since Hosni Mubarak's ouster, that $1.3 billion in annual aid is at stake. US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told two Senate panels on Tuesday that the United States and Egypt are "in very intensive discussions about finding a solution."So, was it intervention from above(i.e. SCAF) in order to contain the damage already done by accusations from media and several authorities involved in the case that the NGO meant foreign interference aiming at dividing the country? And does this mean that it is that easy to influence the judicial system in Egypt, something the Egyptians used to trust, even during the Mubarak era, as in general being above the parties? Enough to worry about, it seems.     

Wikileaks: Israel obtained codes for Iranian air defense in horse trading deal with Russia

 Interesting stuff in the Wikileaks cables of Stratfor. It tells us a something about the way Israel, by wheeling and dealing, collected information about Iranian air defense systems. Useful information for a country that is weighing the possibilities of an attack on Iranian installations.
Between the lines it is also telling information about the lack of scruples countries apparently have, if their agencies feel that the national interest might be at stake. This goes as far as betraying military clients and delivering strategic secrets to the enemy..
 The document I'm referring to is an email from a Stratfor source who spoke with a Mexican friend/colleague who apparently was in the business of UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles -drones) and was an adviser to the Mexican military. He reveals that Mexico, which has its own firm capable of manufacturing UAVs, was contacted by Georgia during the crisis between Georgia and Russia in 2008. At least one of Georgia's UAVs had been downed and it urgently requested to buy Mexican UAVs, as it feared that its Israeli UAVs had been tampered with.  this source was an adviser of the Mexican military.
The author  of the email asked one of his Mexican military contacts about it:       

 ''I inquired more about the compromised Israeli UAVs. What he explained was
that Israel and Russia made a swap -- Israel gave Russia the 'data link'
code for those specific UAVs; in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for
Iran's Tor-M1s.''

 So Israel revealed the codes of the software that guided the Georgian UAVs - which would permit the Russians to down them whenever they saw fit - and as a trade off got the codes of the highly sophisticated Russian Tor M1 aerial defense system, that Moscow delivered to the Iranians. A system that is jamming proof, is able to trace aircraft and missiles from far away and to intercept both. Nice. Neither country apparently did respect the rights of their military clients for one second, as soon as their own national interest entered the picture. So much for morality in that kind of  business.

The Russian Tor M1

But apparently it was not the only example of horse trading in this industry. Because the same source had more interesting news:  

Besides, he said... Israel and Turkey have been collaborating very closely on the
S-300s. He explain (sic) how about 8 years ago when Russia sold S-300s to Greece
to base in Crete (which were supposed to protect Cyprus), Russia delivered
those with a carrier so that Turkey wouldn't try to sink them. (things got
a bit noisy so i may have misheard some of this). The gist of what he said
is that Turkey has been cracking the S-300 since the Crete sale and has
been sharing intel on the S-300 with the Israelis to ensure that they
retain an advantage over Iran should Iran get them from the Russians.

This was, of course, before the Israeli-Turkish relations cooled off considerably because of the Mavi Marmara (Free Gaza Flotilla) affair. So also the S-300 system the Iranians have does not have too many secrets for Israel anymore.
It is noteworthy, however, that the Iranians themselves sometimes show some initiatives a well. Not long ago they ware capable of downing an American spy plane that was flying over their territory. The Americans professed that the engine had been shot down,  but it is much more probable that the Iranians succeeded in cracking the codes of the UAV, so that they could it guide to a safe landing place and take it apart in order to inspect it. So, the might have been able to apply some changes to their Russian obtained systems in the meantime as well. Israel had better be careful.

Egypt's Shura council - dominated by Islamists - sworn in in

A newly elected Shura Council – Egypt's upper house of parliament – that is heavily dominated by Islamists, has been sworn in on Tuesday. Ahmed Fahmi, a leading member of Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party was elected as chairman. Two deputy speakers, one from the Salafist Nour party, the other from the liberal Wafd party, were also elected.

Entrance Shura Council

Islamists won an 80% majority of the 180 seats that were elected in an elections process that was completed on 22 February. The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) got 105 seats (58 per cent), the Salafist Nour party 45 seats (25%). Two liberal-oriented forces of the Egyptian Bloc came third and fourth, with just 14 seats (7.7 per cent) and 8 seats (4.4 per cent) respectively. Two offshoots of Mubarak's defunct National Democratic Party, the Freedom Party and the Democratic Peace Party, got four seats (2 per cent). Independents won the remaining four.
The Shura Council in this way mirrors the People’s Assembly, where Islamists got two thirds and liberals and independents won the remaining third of the seats. However, the total number of Shura Council seats stands at 270 – 180 of which are elected. The remaining 90 members will be appointed by Egypt's next president who is expected to take over from the army by the end of June.

 The two houses – the 678 elected members of the People’s Assembly and the 180 elected members of the Shura Council – will meet on 3 March to appoint the committee tasked with drafting the constitution. Out of a total of 678, the Islamist deputies in the two houses are numbered at 487 (337 in the People’s Assembly and 150 in Shura Council), thus forming around 70 per cent.

The Shura Council was created by late President Anwar El-Sadat in 1980 to take charge of regulating the national press and the formation of political parties. The speaker of the Shura Council used to be a de-facto head of the Higher Press Council and the Political Parties Committee. The Council was also entrusted with preparing reports on political and socio-economic issues facing Egypt.

Yemen on the way to the unknown as Saleh hands power to his second in command

 Saleh (r) and his successor during the ceremony in Sana'a.

 Outgoing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh on Monday formally handed over power to his former vice-president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, to replace him after 33 years of one-man rule. 
It was the last act in a transition process that had been engineered by the Gulf states and the US, and that according to many is nothing but a farce. Saleh handed Hadi a Yemeni flag, which he called the "banner of the revolution" and wished him success. "The responsibilities on the shoulders of the new president are immense, but we are confident that with our support he will succeed," he said.
Hadi already took the oath of office on Saturday, after he had received 99 per cent of the votes cast in an election, earlier in the week,  whereby he was the only candidate. According to the government some 6,6 million Yemenis of the 14 million that were entitled to participate, took part. About 25,000 ballots were invalid, the government said.

While the ceremony took place, tens of thousands of Yemenis were protesting in San'a, demanding the prosecution of Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was granted immunity under the transition deal. "The people want to prosecute the murderer," they chanted in front of the house of newly inaugurated president Hadi.

The US has welcomed the transition as a new beginning for Yemen. According to most analysts, however, it is a transition to the unknown, or rather not even a transition at all. The democratisation of the country has yet to begin. The hard core of the army is still in the hands of the sons and other relatives of Ali Abdullah Saleh. The same goes for the security services. The country is highly divided, with a rebellion by the Houthis in the North and a strong movement in the South that seeks to divide the country anew, as it feels that the South is being exploited by the government in Sana'a. Some people pointed to the fact that Abd-Rabbu Hadi himself is from the south, which could be a an advantage when he seeks to restore the unity. They forget, however, that Hadi played his part as an officer in the 90-ties in delivering the south to Ali Abdullah Saleh. 

Syria votes while fighting and bombardments are continuing

 Voting in Damascus. (AP)

Update, Monday afternoon: Syrian Arab News Agency SANA: Minister of Interior Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ibrahim al-Shaar on Monday announced that 8,376,447 citizens voted in the referendum on the new draft constitution, which constitutes 57.4% of eligible voters, with 89.4% of voters approving it. In a press conference, al-Shaar said that 9% of the voters didn't approve of the new draft constitution, while 1.6% of the ballots were invalid.

Syrians were able to take part in a referendum on a new constitution on Sunday that could theoretically end five decades of one-party rule. Polls opened at 7:00 in the morning with more than 14 million people over the age of 18 eligible to vote at 13,835 polling stations. However it was unclear whether the ballot would be convincing. The opposition has called for a boycot and in many parts of the country fighting is going on, like in the Baba Amro district of Homs that was under assault for the 26the day in row. 
President Bashar al-Assad unveiled the proposed new national charter earlier this month in his latest reform pledge. The charter, written by a committee of 29 people appointed by Assad, drops Article 8 in the existing charter which stipulates that the Baath party is "the head of state and society". It thereby theoretically opens the way to a multi-party system (although parties formed along religious lines remain banned). However the president retains broad powers under the new charter. He would still name the prime minister and government and could, in some cases, veto legislation.Assad has promised to hold parliamentary elections within 90 days if voters approve the new constitution.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said a military bombardment of opposition districts in Homs, now in its fourth week, had killed nine civilians, while rebel fighters had killed four soldiers in clashes in the city.
Meanwhile some 31 people were killed on Sunday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said new bombardments of opposition districts in Homs had killed nine civilians, while rebel fighters had killed four soldiers in clashes in the city. The British-based Observatory said eight civilians and 10 members of the security forces were killed in violence elsewhere in Syria.

American correspondent Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik, who were killed in the bombardment of Homs last week, and two journalists who got wounded, are still in Homs despite Red Cross efforts to extricate them. The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Saturday it was still unable to evacuate distressed civilians from Baba Amro. After a day of talks with Syrian authorities and opposition fighters, it said there were "no concrete results."

'Friends of Syria' try to isolate Assad further

 
 British Channel 4 carried this blood chilling report about the siege and shelling of Homs on 22 February. The same day reporters Narie Covin (SndayTimes) and the French photographer Rému Ochlik were killed in Homs by a rocket.

Representatives of more than 70 nations in Tunisia for the "Friends of Syria" meeting have called for an immediate end to violence in the country and for new sanctions on the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
In a final declaration on Friday, the group also called to allow for humanitarian aid to be brought in.
It vowed to "press the Syrian regime to stop all acts of violence" by enforcing current sanctions and introducing new ones, including with travel bans, asset freezes, ceasing oil purchases, reducing diplomatic ties and preventing the shipment of arms.
"[Friends of Syria] demanded that the Syrian regime immediately permit humanitarian agencies to deliver vital relief goods and services to civilians affected by the violence," the declaration said.
The group also recognised the main opposition umbrella group, the Syrian National Council (SNC), as "a legitimate representative of Syrians seeking peaceful democratic change" but fell short of giving it exclusive recognition.
 The declaration did not fully endorse some Arab calls for peacekeepers to be deployed to Syria, with the declaration saying only that it "noted the Arab League's request to the United Nations Security Council to issue a resolution to form a joint Arab-UN peacekeeping force".
Prior to the declaration, Saudi Arabia and Qatar pushed for a more forceful intervention in Syria, with Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, saying he supported the arming of opposition fighters.
Faisal said Syrians had the right to defend themselves against a crackdown by security forces that has left thousands dead.
 US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton forcefully criticised Russia and China which did not attend the Tunis conference. "They are setting themselves not only against the Syrian people but also the entire Arab awakening. It's quite distressing to see permanent members of the Security Council using their veto when people are being murdered - women, children, brave young men -- houses are being destroyed. It is just despicable."
 Meanwhile Assad's forces killed 103 people in Syria on Friday in the bombardment of the besieged city of Homs and in attacks on the countryside of Hama and the east and north of the country, the activist group Local Coordination Committees said. Most of those killed were civilians, including 14 children and one woman, it said.

Earlier, the UN and the Arab League appointed Kofi Annan, a former UN secretary-general, to act as a joint special envoy on Syria. He "will consult broadly and engage" with all sides inside Syria and out, "to end the violence and the humanitarian crisis," a UN statement said.
Annan is backed by a UN general assembly resolution and Arab League resolutions that support the league's plan for Mr Al Assad to delegate power to a vice president while a national unity government is formed ahead of elections. He will try to "facilitate a peaceful Syrian-led and inclusive political solution that meets the democratic aspirations of the Syrian people," the statement added. Russia yesterday welcomed Mr Annan's appointment. A western diplomat said that efforts by the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to find an Arab envoy had failed because of the difficulty in appointing someone acceptable to both Mr Al Assad and the opposition.

Protest on 18th anniversary of closure of main street in Hebron

 

Some 500 people, Palestinians, internationals and Israeli's, have demonstrated on Friday against the closure of Shuhada Street in Hebron (Al-Khalil in Arabic). Friday was the 18th anniversary of the attack by the settler Baruch Goldstein from the nearby settlement of Kiryat Arba on people praying in the Ibrahim mosque, killing 29 people and wounding over 100. The demonstration led to clashed with the army, which used teargas, sound grenades and skunk water. Six people were arrested, some 70 people were treated for suffocation from the teargas..
 The 1994 killing by the settler Goldstein was the event that led to the closure of Shuhada Street,  following the familiar pattern that it was not the settlers' movements that got curtailed after an armed attack, but in stead those of the Palestinians. Before '94 Shuhada Street was the main street connecting the central and northern neighborhoods of the city with the southern ones. It used to be the place where Hebron’s central bus station was to be found, as well as taxi stations, the central vegetable market, an ancient Turkish bath, two wheat mills, a gas station, tens of different commercial shops, and some of the oldest schools in the city.
Its closure was just an additional step in a process whereby Jews gradually took over parts of the city and life for the inhabitants of Hebron became more difficult. Hebron was in 1968 the first place where a nucleus of settlers with the consent of the Israeli military decided to celebrate Pesah (the Jewish Passover) in a hotel. They never left, and the military put them after the celebrations on a military basis. In the early '70s, the Israeli government permitted them to establish the Kiryat Arba settlement on the Eastern Hebron hills, which has been since a hotbed of settler ultra-nationalism.
 In 1977, after the Likud started to dominate Israeli politics, the government allowed settlers even to move from Kiryat Arba into the heart of the city. In the '80s, the Israeli army demolished 12 buildings near the central vegetable market, gradually leading to the complete displacement of the shop owners. The Army also took over the central bus station, and turned it into a military base. For the past two years, the settlers have been allowed to stay inside this “base”. Today, nearly 450 settlers and 250 ultra-Zionist yeshiva students live in the six settlement enclaves that are located along the sides of Shuhada Street. Most of the settlers are involved in constant assaults on the residents of Hebron, making their life miserable. Moving from one place to the next in Hebron, that used to take Palestinian inhabitants a few minutes, now require long detours. The Palestinians who still live on Shuhada Street reach their homes by climbing onto their neighbors’ roofs and porches.

The human rights organisation B'Tslem conducted a survey in November-December 2006 during which it found that at least 1,014 Palestinian housing units in the center of Hebron have been vacated by their occupants. This number represents 41.9 percent of the housing units in the relevant area. Sixty-five percent (659) of the empty apartments became vacant during the course of the second intifada. Regarding Palestinian commercial establishments, 1,829 are no longer open for business. This number represents 76.6 percent of all the commercial establishments in the surveyed area. Of the closed businesses, 62.4 percent (1,141) were closed during the second intifada. At least 440 of them closed pursuant to military orders.

Amnesty raises voice against trial of Saudi protester who spoke out to the BBC

A 42-year-old Saudi who was arrested on 11 March 2011 for talking to BBC Arabic about the lack of freedoms in Saudi Arabia,  stood trial on Wednesday 22 February before the Specialized Criminal Court in Riyadh. Khaled al-Johani was the only protester who was courageous enough to speak out on the planned “Day of Rage” demonstration on 11 March 2011 in Riyadh.
 Amnesty International considers al-Johani to be a prisoner of conscience, held for peacefully exercising his right to freedom of expression and assembly. Amnesty learnt that another man is being tried at the same court on charges relating to the 11 March planned protest in Riyadh.
In the video below can be seen what Johani told his interlocutors of the BBC, that day in Riyadh:

Amnesty's Philip Luther, Interim Director of Amnesty International’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, said that  “Khaled al-Johani shouldn’t be standing trial in any court for peacefully exercising his rights to freedom of expression and assembly. The fact that he is appearing before a court that was originally established to handle terrorism-related charges only adds insult to injury. This trial is utterly unwarranted. We call on the Saudi authorities to release him and others held on similar charges immediately and unconditionally.” 
At his trial the General Prosecutor read out the list of charges against him, which included his support of demonstrations, his presence at the location of a demonstration; and his communications with the foreign media in a manner that harmed the reputation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Since his arrest, sal-Johhani has not been represented by a lawyer, including in Wednesday's session. However, the judge said al-Johani may appoint a lawyer of his own choice within a week.
Khaled al-Johani, a teacher, has five children whose ages range between six months - a baby born while he was in detention – and 12 years old.

At least 35 people killed by bombs in Iraq

Update:  The death toll rose to at least 50 later in the morning (Reuters).

At least 35 people have been killed and dozens injured in a wave of bombings and shootings across Baghdad. Officials said the attacks appeared to be targeting mainly police officers.
Nine people were killed in the worst attack, in the central Karrada district, which is mainly Shia. The blast, near a police checkpoint, shook buildings and damaged shops.
No group has yet said it was behind the violence.
Also on Thursday, a car bomb in killed six people in Kadhimiya, north of Baghdad, which is also Shia-dominated. Gunmen in the Sarafiya district of the capital also killed six at a police checkpoint, while
six people were killed and several wounded in four other attacks.

Also at least two people were killed in explosions in Baquba, the capital of Diyala province, north of Baghdad, police said.There are also reports of bombings in the provinces of Salahuddin and Kirkuk.
There are fears the death toll from Thursday's violence could rise.
Last week, at least 18 people were killed in a suicide attack near the Iraqi police academy in the capital.

Shia targets have come under increasing attack since the government of Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki moved against senior members of the predominantly Sunni Iraqiya political bloc.
The day after US troops withdrew, a warrant was issued for the arrest of Vice-President Tariq al-Hashemi, who is accused of financing death squads.

Thousands of Libyans around Misrata prevented for going home

 Tawergha used to be inhabited by dark skinned Libyans.

Authorities in and around Misrata are preventing thousands of people from returning to the villages of Tomina and Kararim and have failed to stop local militias from looting and burning homes there, Human Rights Watch reported on Tuesday. The same goes for the roughly 30,000 displaced people from the nearby town of Tawergha, who have also been blocked from returning home for at least five months.
Displaced residents of Tomina and Kararim told Human Rights Watch that Gaddafi forces had ordered the civilian residents of both villages to evacuate their homes on May 12, 2011. The residents of Tawergha fled with retreating Gaddafi forces in mid-August.
Officials in Misrata have sought to justify the violations to Human Rights Watch, contending that people from Tomina, Kararim, and Tawergha fought with Gaddafi forces and committed atrocities against Misratans during the 2011 conflict. The National Transitional Council and transitional government have been unable to assert control over the hundreds of militias operating in Libya, Human Rights Watch said. But in Misrata local military authorities, including the military council, appear to have influence over many of the city’s 250 militias. The Misrata Military Council apparently operates checkpoints, including one 80 kilometers south of the city. According to HRW the Misrata authorities could definitely do a lot more to allow returns and to protect civilian property.


Fierce clashes between two tribes in Libya's remote southeastern desert have killed more than 100 people over the past 10 days, tribal sources said on Tuesday.

At least 113 people from the Toubu tribe and another 23 from the Zwai tribe have been killed in the town of Kufra since fighting erupted on 12 February, the sources said.

 A source from the National Transitional Council, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said control of lucrative smuggling routes was at the root of the conflict.  Kufra, with a population of about 40,000, is located in a triangle sharing borders with Egypt, Chad and Sudan. The Toubu tribe faced discrimination under Qadhafi's regime.